Animal Spirits: Charges to the Hilt

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Since 2/19/20 — the height for the market earlier than COVID hit — the 20+ Yr Treasury ETF has posted a complete return of -31.9% versus ARK Innovation’s $ARKK drop of 30.7%. pic.twitter.com/flFRsaJzn6

— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) August 21, 2023

A have a look at all of Michael Burry’s current predictions.

In 2005, Predicted the collapse of the subprime mortgage market
-> Housing market crashes in 2008, International Monetary Disaster.

On Dec 2015, he predicted that the inventory market would crash throughout the subsequent few months.
-> SPX +11%… pic.twitter.com/fpBj9V2Shq

— Adam Khoo (@adamkhootrader) August 15, 2023

It is not on daily basis you see a technique go virtually all the way in which to zero in lower than two years. However this hashish ETF–which is slated for liquidation–has practically accomplished it. It is down ~90% since its Oct. 2021 inception. Leverage and weed shares, unhealthy combo. pic.twitter.com/h4KEuEUJzD

— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) August 20, 2023

All of those are cheap takes:
-inflation remains to be too excessive
-fast development is suitable with cooling inflation attributable to provide chain enchancment
-growth remains to be too quick to be according to 2% inflation
-over time the economic system can’t deal with 5%+ Fed Funds

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) August 18, 2023

Extreme delinquency for auto loans is highest since a minimum of 2006. But, the roles market is powerful.

So principally, nobody has any concept what is going on on.

[via Wall Street Journal] pic.twitter.com/i0SvkjCrvB

— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) August 21, 2023

Closing my week pondering ideas from an AI professor @Wharton who thinks productiveness acceleration from AI will take 10-year bond yield as much as 6%.

Is bond sentiment too bullish or bearish – @biancoresearch and @dailydirtnap been debating.

Speak about a 🔥take.

— Jeremy Schwartz (@JeremyDSchwartz) August 18, 2023

Extra leverage and actual property hypothesis?

Solely 0.88% of residence fairness is being utilized in HELOCs presently

The bottom degree since 1988!

It peaked at 6.57% pic.twitter.com/nFKLIx86tI

— TheHappyHawaiian (@ThHappyHawaiian) August 21, 2023

What a month-to-month mortgage cost would appear to be for a brand new residence purchaser within the US, based mostly on the median present residence value and the typical 30Y fixed-rate mortgage, assuming a 20% down cost: pic.twitter.com/GITXvCvI2f

— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) August 22, 2023

Macy’s is difficult to take severely.

Hikes shrink allowance after bodily rely… which raises a number of questions.

On the lookout for -7% FY comps. Takes bank card delinquencies up.

*This* is what rubbish retail accounting seems to be like. A lot gibberish for a $4b mkt cap co. $M

— Jeff Macke (@JeffMacke) August 22, 2023

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